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drf.com Bet This, Not That: Trainer angles at Santa Anita Santa Anita’s winter-spring meet has been luring top trainers and horses in North America, since the track opened on Christmas Day in 1934. This meet, which begins Friday, Dec. 26, boasts 39 graded stakes, including eight Grade 1 stakes. Let’s use DRF Formulator to see which trainers have excelled at the meet in recent history, which angles have been most profitable, and which ones are best to avoid. Opening day will mark the fourth anniversary of Santa Anita returning to a dirt surface on the main track, so the dirt stats will focus on the past four years, even though Formulator allows you to look back at all of a trainer’s runners over the past five years. Below are a few of our favorite trainer angles, but as always, we encourage you to use Formulator to find your own and to find potentially live horses throughout the meet. John Sadler: Sadler tallied 34 wins at last year’s winter-spring meet, matching Jerry Hollendorfer for most wins, and his eight stakes wins were more than any other trainer at the meet. He’s won at 19 percent rate with all runners over the past five years and netted a $1.65 return on investment when betting $2 to win on each. Those numbers are nearly identical to his stats over that time at Santa Anita (19 percent, $1.67 ROI), but some of his runners have been better bets than others. • Bet This: Sadler debuting at Santa Anita. Sadler is strong with first-time starters in general, clicking with 21 percent winners, 46 percent in the money, and a $2.49 ROI over the past five years at all tracks. At Santa Anita, though, he’s even better, going 78-16-10-12 with a $3.06 ROI in the past five years with horses making their debut. The numbers are strong regardless of class (maiden claiming or maiden special weight), and some of his best prices have come in hillside debuts, going 20-4-2-3 with a $5.18 ROI with those debuting in turf sprints. • Not That: Sadler on the hillside turf course cutting back from a route. Santa Anita’s hillside turf course is unlike any other course in North America. After breaking from the gate, horses make a slight right turn, then run downhill before crossing over the dirt surface of the main track, before turning left at the top of the stretch. Conventional wisdom says that the course favors those cutting back from routes to a sprint down the hill, but that does not apply to John Sadler. Over the past five years, he’s just 58-5-8-4 with a $0.98 ROI with that angle. Even a $23 winner in March of this year could not push the ROI above a dollar, and 13 of the 53 losers in that sample went off as the post-time favorite. Bob Baffert: Baffert is the biggest name of all trainers that are based in Southern California. His 25 percent win rate at Santa Anita over the past five years mirrors his win rate with all runners, and his $1.74 ROI there is 3 cents better than his ROI at all other tracks in that time. He wins regularly at Santa Anita, and he wins with horses at all levels. So when do you bet and when do you pass? • Not That: Baffert down the hill at Santa Anita. This angle was mentioned in our inaugural edition of Bet This, Not That, but it is so utterly remarkable, it bears repeating. In downhill sprints at Santa Anita in recent history, he’s downright atrocious. Over the past five years, he’s 44-1-5-6 with a measly $0.08 ROI. Worse yet, that lone win came in February 2010, nearly five years ago, so that means Baffert is currently riding a 37-start losing streak in turf sprints at Santa Anita. • Bet This: Baffert going turf to dirt at Santa Anita. When Baffert goes dirt to turf at Santa Anita, avoid; he’s 30-1-3-3 with a $0.09 ROI over the past five years. When he moves them from turf to dirt there, bet. He’s 34-10-9-5 with a $3.00 ROI last four years going turf to dirt at Santa Anita. In sprints, he’s even better (21-7-6-2, $3.44 ROI), perhaps with many of the failed turf sprinters mentioned above. Peter Miller: Based in Southern California, more than one-third of Miller’s 2000 starts in the past five years occurred at Santa Anita. Over that period of time, his win rate and in-the-money rate are identical to his numbers with all starters (18 percent and 46 percent, respectively). Notably, though, his ROI at Santa Anita in that time is $2.02, a 35 percent increase over his $1.49 ROI at other tracks. Miller’s runners at Santa Anita win and hit the board at exactly the same rate as at other tracks, but at much nicer prices. • Bet This: Miller debuting horses in maiden claimers at Santa Anita. A quick glance at Miller’s first-start stats shows that he can get them ready to run at first asking. With all runners making their debut over the past five years, he wins 19 percent of the time (35 for 189) and yields a profitable ROI ($2.22). It’s worth noting, though, that the bulk of that success occurs with those debuting for a tag (26 percent win rate, $3.14 ROI), and when they debut for a tag at Santa Anita, he is phenomenal: 27-8-1-2 with a $5.03 ROI past five years. • Not That: Miller debuting horses on turf at Santa Anita. Miller’s success in debuts at Santa Anita does not apply to the turf course, though. In fact, he is 12-0-0-0 over the past five years with all horses making their debut on the turf course at Santa Anita. That’s right; he has not had one hit the board in five years, and 11 of those 12 runners finished sixth or worse in their first start. Some other angles to seek out or avoid at Santa Anita include: • Bet This: Bill Spawr going route to sprint on dirt. Spawr is lower-profile than many of the big trainers, but he has excelled at Santa Anita over the past five years. At other tracks, Spawr wins at a 14 percent rate with a $1.15 ROI in that time (54 for 384, 43 percent in the money). At Santa Anita, though, he’s 75 for 370 with a $2.26 ROI, winning with 20 percent of his starts and 49 percent finishing in the money. Over the past four years, Spawr at Santa Anita with dirt sprinters has been a particularly good bet, winning with 22 percent of his runners and improving his ROI to $2.81. When he shortens them from a route to a sprint on dirt, though, look out. In that time, he’s 17-9-2-0 with a gaudy $5.96 ROI with those runners. • Not That: Jerry Hollendorfer in Grade 1 stakes at Santa Anita. Hollendorfer tied John Sadler for most wins at this meet last year, but he has two wins in Grade 1 stakes at Santa Anita over the past four years. Just two. And both of them came in 2014. There was Shared Belief’s win in the Awesome Again at odds of 1-5 as well as the victory by Let Faith Arise in the Santa Margarita at 4-1. He’s 41-2-4-5 with a $0.31 ROI in top-level stakes at Santa Anita over the past four years. • Bet This: Ron Ellis in maiden special weights at Santa Anita in the second career start. Ron Ellis is another trainer who has better numbers at Santa Anita than at other tracks in recent years. Ellis, though, has been a bad bet with horses making their debut at Santa Anita in a maiden special weight race (22-1-5-2, $0.72 ROI). However, if he keeps them in maiden special weight races for their second career start at Santa Anita, they might be worth betting; he’s 23-8-1-3 with a $5.54 ROI over the past five years with those runners. • Bet This: Doug O’Neill with last-out winners following a layoff. O’Neill has been successful with runners coming off a win at Santa Anita, but he does even better if he gives them a bit of time following that effort. In fact, O’Neill effectively doubles his baseline win rate and ROI (15 percent, $1.54 ROI with all runners at Santa Anita last five years) if he gives at least 45 days between starts after a win. Over the past five years, he’s 30-10-3-4 with a $3.08 ROI with all runners at Santa Anita coming off a win and a layoff of 45 days or more. These are just a few examples of great bets to target as well as ones to avoid. Every day, at every track, you will find many examples of these kinds of great (or awful) opportunities. DRF Formulator gives you the keys to find these angles, and it could very well lead you to a winner that is overlooked by much of the betting public. Check out the different Formulator plans available, priced for every budget.

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